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Demographics & Statistics Aging Longevity

Projected Demographic Changes In America

11 months ago

5907  0
Posted on Jan 02, 2020, 1 p.m.

As we enter a new year which also brings us into a new decade projections have been released by demographer Dudley Poston of what changes may be happening in America over the next ten years, based on US Census Bureau Population Data and the Population Division of the United Nations Data. 

Projections are that the percentage of non-Hispanic whites will decline, the number of old people will continue to increase, and racial minorities will increase the most, mainly Hispanics, making them the main driving engine of demographic change for America for the next ten years and possibly beyond.

The American population is currently just over 331 million people, making it the third largest country in the world being outnumbered by China at over 1.4 billion and India at just under 1.4 billion. Ten years from now predictions are that America will reach around 350 million, India will reach 1.5 billion and China will reach 1.46 billion. 

America is aging, and this trend will continue; currently there are some 74.1 million people under the age of 18 and there are 56.4 million over the age of 65. Projections are that in ten years these numbers will be about even, with the younger population reaching 76.3 million and the numbers of the old increasing to reach 74.1 million with the majority coming from the aging baby boomer generation. 

According to the US Census Bureau, the number of American centenarians increased from 53,000 longevity warriors in 2010 to being over 90,000 in 2020, and by 2030 there will likely be over 130,000 people over the age of 100. This increase in centenarians by 2030 in just an indicator of growth to come in later years. 

In 2046 the first group of surviving members of the baby boomer generation will reach 100 years old, this is when the numbers of centenarians in America will really begin the increase, by 2060 projections are that there will be over 603,000 centenarians within the USA.

In 2020 non-Hispanic white people will remain the majority race in America who are projected to represent over 59.7% of the population. However, this number has been decreasing since 1950 and projections are that it will continue to do so. 

Currently non-Hispanic whites are the majority of the American population followed by the Hispanic population representing 18.7% who are followed by black and Asian Americans. By 2030, projections are that the non-Hispanic white population will drop to represent 55.8%, Hispanics will increase to 21.1%, and the percentage of black and Asian Americans will also increase; eventually the non-Hispanic white population is projected to drop below 50% of the population around 2045.

As of January 1, 2020 non-Hispanic whites under the age of 18 are already in the minority in America, among all of the young people across the nation now there are more minority young people that there are non-Hispanic white young people. Among the old people aged 65+ non-Hispanic white people are the majority, and compared to minority elderly populations the non-Hispanic whites will continue to be the majority well passed 2060. 

Based on these projections Hispanics and other racial minorities will be America’s main demographic engine of population change in the coming years, and this is predicted to be the most significant demographic change America will see. America is aging, and if not for the racial minorities somewhat countering this by 2030 the aging population would have become even older than it is now and what it will be by 2030 and beyond. 

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