Longevity expert Aubrey de Grey thinks that those who are currently in their 40s may have more than a 50% likelihood of not dying from aging-related causes. In his concept of longevity escape velocity (LEV), which is a time point when lifespan-extending technologies will prolong our lives so that life expectancy improves faster than the rate of aging, humans will, for the most part, not die of these diseases.
“So, not dying of aging is, of course, the point,” says de Grey. “I think that the chance for a 40-year-old today, in the Western world, is more than 50%.”
Aubrey de Grey is somewhat of a magnet for controversy. The computer scientist, self-taught biogerontologist, and researcher has co-authored journal articles with some of the most respected scientists in the field and is president of the LEV Foundation. He proposes “that the first human beings who will live to 1,000 years old have already been born.”
Longevity escape velocity
Now he is predicting that we will attain LEV sometime in the late 2030s thanks to substantial advances in aging interventions that target the hallmarks of aging and characteristics of physiological deterioration associated with aging to extend longevity. However, he adds that there is at least a 5% chance that we will not attain LEV within the next 100 years which could be due to unforeseen obstacles.
He believes that those in their 60s will benefit from future interventions against aging that will help us to attain LEV which will apply to all people including those with 10 to 20 years of life left. However, he believes that the longevity-extending therapies will be too strenuous for those who are “at death’s door.” He predicts that we will have new techniques to target the hallmarks of aging and the physiological deterioration associated with aging with a combination of therapeutics that may likely come in the form of injections that cumulatively target multiple hallmarks.
Combination of divide and conquer therapies
According to de Grey, the panel of interventions would need to use some sort of divide-and-conquer strategy, and that single interventions designed for one hallmark will not produce any meaningful lifespan extension. But he does believe that we will find a way to address them all, and in doing so the magnitude of both health and lifespan extension will add an additional 10 to 20 years to human longevity.
Reversing biological aging
De Grey believes that reversing biological aging is the overarching goal of addressing the hallmarks of aging for increasing life expectancy. However, once we reach this point he thinks the current methods of measuring biological age using physical strength measurements, cognitive testing, and chemical modifications to DNA will be inaccurate, incomplete, and will need vast improvements. Unless improvements in testing for biological age occur, measuring the effects of anti-aging interventions may not come from any other method than measuring the average lifespan of those who use them against those who don’t.
Is this too far-fetched?
Some may find his prediction of 40-year-olds alive today having over a 50% chance of not dying from aging to be more than a little far-fetched. His assessment is based on emerging trends in longevity, research investment, the emergence of artificial intelligence-assisted technology integrating biological data with superhuman computational capabilities, and confirming identifying all of the hallmarks of aging.
While he doesn’t really mention specific interventions in this interview, he does mention the possibilities of growing organs for transplants and research he has done to extend mouse lifespans with combined interventions, which he could have plans to publish at a later date. Maybe he is not mentioning specific interventions for commercial or legal reasons. Perhaps he may know of something being developed in the pipeline that he is unwilling to share at the moment that will allow us to reach LEV by the late 2030s.
With this in mind, to others, this is not too far-fetched an idea, for example, take senolytics that work to selectively eliminate dysfunctional cells that accumulate with age called senescent cells, this is targeting one hallmark of aging. Senolytic therapies could be used in tandem with other anti-aging interventions to target other hallmarks of aging. Senolytic therapies targeting senescent cell accumulation paired with one targeting the shortening of telomeres could potentially work longevity wonders. What if these therapies could be combined with another promoting brain and other vital organ health?
Research and development is often hush-hush, and groundbreaking research and innovations are released frequently. Maybe he does know something and is counting down the days. Only time will tell, but wouldn’t it be wonderful?
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References/Sources/Materials provided by:
López-Otín C, Blasco MA, Partridge L, Serrano M, Kroemer G. Hallmarks of aging: An expanding universe. Cell. 2023 Jan 19;186(2):243-278. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2022.11.001. Epub 2023 Jan 3. PMID: 36599349.
https://worldhealth.net/news/senolytic-drugs-boost-key-protective-protein/
https://worldhealth.net/news/look-senolytic-therapies-longevity/
