A new study published in the journal Nature Medicine shows that the risk of developing dementia after a person turns 55 years old in America is 42%, which is over double the risk that was reported in older studies.
Risk of dementia
Using the new projections, the risk translates to half a million cases this year, increasing to one million new cases annually by the year 2060, according to the new paper. The increasing number of cases is linked to the aging population. The risk of dementia is also linked to genetic factors and other risk factors that also happen to be alarmingly high in America such as diabetes, obesity, hypertension, poor mental health, unhealthy diets, and lack of physical activity/sedentary lifestyles.
Previous underestimates of the risk were attributed to unreliable documentation of the illness in health records as well as on death certificates. There are other causes of unreliable documentation such as minimal surveillance of early-stage cases of dementia, and underreporting of causes, especially among racial minority groups who are disproportionately vulnerable.
This study relied on information that was gathered from the long-term and ongoing Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study (ARIC-NCS) tracking the vascular health and cognitive function of close to 16,000 participants, this data was then modeled with data collected from the U.S. Census Bureau to make projections.
Increased risk
From 1987 to 2020 the analysis revealed that 3,252 participants were documented as having dementia; which translates to an overall lifetime risk of 42% for middle aged Americans, with an average risk of 35% for men and 48% for women. Additionally, the lifetime risk of dementia increases to over 50% after reaching the age of 75 years old.
The new analysis also revealed that there was an even higher risk, between 45% and 60%, among Black adults and among those carrying a variant of the APOE4 gene that codes for a protein that carries cholesterol and other lipids in the bloodstream. Carrying a certain version of this gene is believed to be the biggest genetic risk factor in developing late-onset Alzheimer’s disease. While the cases of dementia are expected to double for White Americans over the next 4 decades, the numbers are expected to triple for Black Americans.
Progressive increase in burden
“Our study results forecast a dramatic rise in the burden from dementia in the United States over the coming decades, with one in two Americans expected to experience cognitive difficulties after age 55,” said study senior investigator and epidemiologist Josef Coresh, MD, PhD, who serves as the founding director of the Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone.
The expected increase is partially linked to progressive decline in brain function being most often observed beginning in middle age, women overall live longer than men, and about 58 million Americans are currently older than 65 years old. However, other research indicates that policies designed to prevent heart disease had the added beneficial effect of slowing cognitive decline and dementia.
“The pending population boom in dementia cases poses significant challenges for health policymakers, in particular, who must refocus their efforts on strategies to minimize the severity of dementia cases, as well as plans to provide more health care services for those with dementia,” said Coresh.
Dementia is a progressive, neurodegenerative disease that involves declines in judgment, memory, and concentration. Some research links the loss of hearing among older adults to an increased risk of dementia, however, only around a third of Americans with hearing loss use hearing aids due to hearing aids being a high-cost expenditure. To address this, the researchers recommend increased monitoring and screening, as well as assistance programs to create awareness and support healthy hearing among the older populations.
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References/Sources/Materials provided by:
https://nyulangone.org/news/united-states-dementia-cases-estimated-double-2060
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41591-024-03340-9
https://sites.cscc.unc.edu/cscc/projects/ARIC-NCS
https://worldhealth.net/news/40-of-dementia-cases-could-have-been-delayed-or-prevented/
https://worldhealth.net/news/hearing-loss-may-increase-risk-dementia/