According to research from the University of Wisconsin-Madison published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, life expectancy gains in wealthy nations have dramatically lost momentum since 1939. The gains in longevity that were once driven by reductions in child mortality have plateaued and become limited by slower progress in older-age survival. This study goes as far as to say that no generation since 1939 will reach 100 years old on average, which could reshape how society should plan for aging, retirement, and pensions.
“The unprecedented increase in life expectancy we achieved in the first half of the 20th century appears to be a phenomenon we are unlikely to achieve again in the foreseeable future. In the absence of any major breakthroughs that significantly extend human life, life expectancy would still not match the rapid increases seen in the early 20th century, even if adult survival improved twice as fast as we predict,” said Héctor Pifarré i Arolas of the La Follette School of Public Affairs.
Longevity Gains Slowing
Life expectancy in wealthy nations increased by around 5 months per generation between 1900 and 1938. During that time, a person born in 1900 could expect to live on average to reach 62; a person born in 1938 could expect to reach 80, which is a dramatic improvement in such a short time. However, the generations born between 1939 and 2000 experienced the longevity gains slowing to around 2.5 to 3.5 months per generation, depending on the statistical model used.
The researchers were able to project multiple possible futures for human longevity using mortality forecasting models and other analytical tools that predict future lifespan using past and present mortality data.
“We forecast that those born in 1980 will not live to be 100 on average, and none of the cohorts in our study will reach this milestone. This decline is largely due to the fact that past surges in longevity were driven by remarkable improvements in survival at very young ages,” according to corresponding author Andrade.
Medical advancements and innovation, combined with improved sanitation and higher standards of living in the early 20th century, promoted rapid declines in infant mortality, which significantly increased the average life expectancy.
Today, in modern society, infant and child mortality rates in high-income nations are extremely low; this means that future longevity gains must come from improved adult health and survival rates at older ages. However, the researchers concluded that such advances are unlikely to match the explosive pace of the longevity gains that were achieved a century ago.
Essential Insights for the Future
Forecasts are never guaranteed; despite this, the researchers suggest their results provide essential insights for wealthy nation policymakers to prepare for the future. They postulate that unexpected developments, pandemics, breakthroughs, and major societal shifts could alter these trends for better or worse, but the current evidence suggests there will be a long-term slowdown in wealthy nations.
Additionally, the longevity gain slow down has consequences and implications beyond national statistics. This study may focus on populations, but as individuals, slower longevity growth could influence how people approach family planning, saving money, purchase insurance, plan retirement, and long-term care. Both government bodies and individuals may need to learn to adjust their expectations to plan for the decades to come.
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